Answering your questions on Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz, the wide receiver market, the salary cap and more.
Ten days to go until the Super Bowl, here’s what’s on your mind …
From Ed (Rodgers/Watson/Stafford to the Rams) (@PAramsfan): Did Jared Goff play his last game as a Ram?
Ed, it’s possible—and I’d probably put the Rams in a category with the Raiders and Niners where I believe they’d consider an upgrade if it’s available to them. Whether one materializes, I don’t know. But the chance of that happening, given the names being thrown around out there (Matthew Stafford, Sam Darnold, etc.) is much greater than it was even last year, when there was a pretty healthy amount of quarterback movement.
Now, I think the Rams do have a challenge that the Raiders, Niners and Lions don’t as much, and that would be Goff’s contract relative to the amount of interest there is in him league-wide. The deals for Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo and Stafford have matured into relative bargains and would probably be seen as values to other teams.
Goff’s figures aren’t bananas by today’s standards, either. He’s due $104 million over the next four years (which comes to an even $26 million per). I just don’t know who’s willing to go ahead and take that on. The other three, I believe, have more natural suitors based on other situations they are connected to across the league. So at the very least, detaching from Goff might be a little tricky for the team.
From Jayjaso (@jay_jaso): Nationally people seemed to mock the Dan Campbell hire but based on the staff, on paper, it seems like he is well respected to put this staff together. Any insight on the new Lions coaching staff?
Jay, I always pay close attention to the composition of a new coach’s staff—because I think it can oftentimes tell you about the belief a guy’s counterparts have in him. And despite what the aftermath of his introductory press conference might lead you to think, Campbell is off to a flying start as he works to pass that first test. (I spoke to him about the reaction
for Monday’s column, by the way.)Campbell’s defensive coordinator is former Saints DBs coach Aaron Glenn—who interviewed for the Jets HC job and is considered a very good bet to be a head coach within a year or two. He didn’t have to take a DC job somewhere else to get there. He chose to go with Campbell, and he’s a guy who’s worked with him for five years. Along those same lines, new offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn had interest from, among others, new Jaguars coach Urban Meyer. He, too, chose to go with Campbell.
And you can throw assistant head coach Duce Staley and special teams coach Dave Fipp into that group too, as respected, veteran assistants who made the leap to Detroit. That, by the way, guarantees a whole lot of nothing. There’s a shot all these individual decisions weren’t good ones. But put them together, and I think you’ll see that, in the coaching community, there’s a solid level of respect for Campbell.
From ct_ll_5 (@ct_ll_5): Best Seahawks OC fit?
Hey CT. I initially had an answer here tying Ken Dorsey to the Seattle job, and I think the Bills’ quarterback coach would’ve been a good fit. Then, Tuesday night, Rams’ passing-game coordinator Shane Waldron landed the job. And he’s a really intriguing name that took a winding path to his gig as a team’s primary play-caller.
Few coaches had the ear of Sean McVay over the last five years or so like Waldron did, and the role Waldron served for McVay wasn’t too far off from the one Mike McDaniel serves for Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. Both guys are incredibly intelligent and creative and earned the trust of their head coaches. McVay brought Waldron with him from Washington to L.A. in 2017, made him passing-game coordinator a year later (the year the Rams went to the Super Bowl) and added QBs coach to his duties in 2019.
But a year ago, McVay shuffled his staff some and wanted to get Jared Goff more hands-on teaching (with guys on the staff, Waldron included, spread a little thin), and he went after Kevin O’Connell—a rising young assistant/former player with a head-coaching future—to accomplish that. McVay lured O’Connell with the OC title, which sort of left Waldron a rung down in the pecking order.
That didn’t make Waldron any less bright or promising as an offensive mind. It’s just sort of what the staff needed at the time, and the risk, I believe, was that some other team could see that and pluck Waldron away. It just so happens that the team that wound up seeing that was in the Rams’ division. So I see this as a pretty intriguing move by Seattle.
From J T (@jetstrimin): Where is Deshaun Watson playing next year?
J.T., I think he’ll be playing in Houston, and I think the Texans would be ridiculous to entertain trading him at this point. The trouble is, I really can’t say if he’s gonna budge, mostly because I’ve gotten no indication that’s going to happen. But Watson’s way too special not to exhaust every avenue to try and fix the situation, and I don’t think Houston’s close to having exhausted every avenue.
Really, that the Texans are in this position in the first place is a product of their own incompetence. Watson’s not angry because he didn’t get to pick the coach and/or GM. Watson’s upset because he was told he’d be part of that process, he was consulted early on, and then he watched as ownership reversed course on a dime without telling him—and did so while, at least initially, disregarding his suggestions.
The bottom line: If you were in his spot, you’d feel like you’d been patronized and lied to as well.
All of it could’ve been avoided by owner Cal McNair’s picking up the phone and just keeping Watson apprised of where the team was going. That McNair chose not to do that is absolutely mind-blowing. And that leaves new GM Nick Caserio with a five-alarm blaze as his first fire to put out in Houston. I don’t know if he can make it happen. I do know, if I were him, I’d sure as hell try, because there are very few quarterbacks who look capable of keeping up with Patrick Mahomes for the next decade, and Watson is one of them.
From Glenn Orman (@GlennSOrman): What do you do if you're Terry Fontenot when it comes to Matt Ryan and Julio Jones over the next two years? Part of a retool? Or chips to deal as part of a rebuild?
Hey Glenn. If I’m Fontenot and Arthur Smith, I probably hang on to Matt Ryan for now, and the reason is because I believe what you might be able to get for him won’t be worth his value as a bridge to the next guy, whoever that might be. And yes, I’ve used this example a lot, but I think the Alex Smith analogy fits here, too, in what Smith was able to do for Kansas City over a five-year period.
On one hand, having him there freed the team not to force it and draft a quarterback that it had reservations about. On the other, when the one they really loved came along, Smith was an ideal guy to be the in-transition quarterback. To me, Ryan can be both guys for the Falcons here, too. I’m not saying they won’t love Trey Lance, Justin Fields or Zach Wilson, but if they don’t love those guys, having Ryan gives them leeway to wait another year or two. If they do love one, and take one at No. 4, I think Ryan is the kind of guy you want the kid around.
Is that worth more than maybe the second-round pick (or so) they could get for Ryan in a trade, in a market that could be saturated with veteran quarterbacks? I’d say it is.
From dancmc (@dancmc): What’s the latest on the 2021 salary cap?
Dan, I don’t think the cap will be $175 million, which was the agreed upon floor for 2021 when the league and union negotiation pandemic adjustments to the CBA. I’m not sure if it’ll be $198.2 million again either. But I do think there’ll be a real effort by the NFL and the union to make it as reasonable as possible, under whatever the conditions are in early March, to try and prevent a massive bloodletting of veterans across the league.
What conditions could change between now and then? That part is simple: The new television deals could get done. And if the TV deals get done, now we’re talking about having another way to convince some more hardline owners to smooth the cap over the next few years before the really big numbers kick in, the same way the league smoothed the cap from 2011 to 13 before new broadcast deals kicked in almost a decade ago.
From Gambling Avengers (@GamblingAvenge1): Is the NFL entering the NBA zone for offseason player movement? QBs especially? They realize they have more control than they realized?
Gambling—not necessarily. The NFL’s not the NBA. Very few players have the leverage to pull off those sorts of power plays. Remember, a great NBA player has a lot of money in the bank, a guaranteed contract and a far better chance of sustaining a 10- or 15-year career than a great NFL player does. It’s why an NFL player is more likely to sign a team-friendly deal earlier in his career (mitigating injury risk) and less likely to stage a wildcat strike.
Quarterbacks are the obvious exceptions. Could Aaron Rodgers force his way out of Green Bay? Probably. Could Deshaun Watson force his way out of Houston? I think so. And we’ve seen others, like Jalen Ramsey, pull it off. It just takes guts of iron to do it. More often than not, I feel like, in a sport where the injury rate is well near 100%, guys will opt for long-term security. But I’d agree they do have a little more control than most realize, if they’re willing to gamble on themselves.
From Bryan (@bryankelly_): Allen Robinson ... Kenny Golladay ... Chris Godwin ... Who gets franchised?
Hey Bryan—this is a pretty interesting question, and I think it relates to each team’s individual cap situation. And would you believe that the Buccaneers are actually the team with the healthiest cap of those three? It’s true. They have around $150 million in cap commitments for 2021, which leaves room to put a number of about $17 million on Godwin to take him off the market. With the team going into 2021 with a 44-year-old quarterback, it makes sense to act with that sort of urgency. So I could see a tag there.
As for Allen Robinson and Kenny Golladay, the Bears and Lions are both at about $185 million in cap commitments for next season, which puts each in a precarious position. I could see Chicago mortgaging to make it work with Robinson, who’s seeking his third contract as a pro. Detroit, on the other, I would think would be more likely to try and work out a long-term deal with Golladay (seeking his second contract) than put the tag on him.
And, of course, where the cap lands will be a part of these decisions too.
From Danny Stern (@DStern719): How can a front office change over their front office (new GM etc.) but keep the same scouts and still have way more success than their previous regime?
Danny, it’s definitely possible, depending on how the place is structured and how the scouts are deployed. Just because a lieutenant is part of a group that failed doesn’t mean that person isn’t capable. And I think Robert Saleh is a really good example of it—he was linebackers coach in Jacksonville from 2014 to ‘16, part of a Gus Bradley–led staff that was ushered out after the 2016 season. Despite that, when Kyle Shanahan arrived in San Francisco, and failed to land Vic Fangio, he hired Saleh, a colleague of his from Houston, as DC.
It’d be fair to look at that sort of thing sideways. It’d be easy to see Saleh as a fired position coach. Instead, Shanahan had his own opinion of the guy, and three years later Saleh’s defense was leading the Niners into the Super Bowl, and a year after that he was being introduced as the head coach of the Jets. Shanahan, by the way, five years before that Super Bowl, was asking out of Cleveland after a year there as offensive coordinator.
So if a GM comes in and finds good scouting infrastructure, and thinks his program can help those people, then it absolutely can work. Sometimes a team needs a full housecleaning. We saw the Bills perform one in 2017. Other times, that’s not necessary.
From A L E X (@AlexLeeSays): Can you rank the first-round QBs from the past 3 draft classes along with this years. Thanks!
Alex, I’ll do a top five based on how they were each seen coming out.
1) Trevor Lawrence: The most highly thought-of prospect since Andrew Luck.
2) Joe Burrow: There was very much a consensus in 2020 that Burrow should go first overall, more so than there was on any prospect in 2018 or 2019.
3) Sam Darnold: You may forget that Darnold was widely seen as the top quarterback in his class, and Baker Mayfield going first was a surprise. But he was, and it was.
4) Tua Tagovailoa: Again, there’s been some revisionist history on this one. And I’d be a little worried about some signs from 2020. But he was very highly regarded.
5) Baker Mayfield: He really grew on teams over that spring, even if most teams would’ve taken Darnold in front of him.
The two guys not on this list who are really interesting to me are Justin Herbert and Josh Allen. There was plenty of skepticism about both before they were drafted—both were seen as raw and as projects, like Patrick Mahomes was in 2018. Both worked out nicely.
Kyler Murray, who went first overall, was similarly polarizing, but for different reasons. Simply put, it was hard for some teams to wrap their heads around drafting a quarterback with his frame that high.
From Jason Kroulik (@crowlick): Where does Stafford end up and what is the trade compensation?
Jason, I think Denver, Indianapolis, New England and San Francisco are all obvious potential suitors, and each has its merits for Stafford. It’s hard for me to say at this point where he’ll land, because we don’t know exactly which other quarterbacks will be available, and I certainly could see any of those teams drafting one in the first round (the Colts, Patriots and Niners likely would have to trade up to do it).
As for the price tag, I think having Stafford out there early does at least set the Lions up to get a solid return (a first and maybe something else), because it puts them ahead of the market. We’ve heard a lot of names over the last week, and speculation on which quarterbacks could be on the move. What Detroit can offer another team now, in late January, is an opportunity to gain certainty at the most important position. Getting done early would also be good for Stafford, for a variety of reasons.
Trying to get a deal done now really would be win-win-win for the Lions, Stafford and his new team. And it’s not like that would be unprecedented. You may remember the Chiefs moved Alex Smith during Super Bowl week three years ago.
From daddy shark (@Daddyshark0629): Can you predict the Eagles’ QB drama still somehow unfolding? Who am I expecting under center this season? Neither has trade value with better options/cap hit
Daddy Shark, I think the hire of Nick Sirianni shows a desire to hold onto Carson Wentz. The new Eagles coach was Frank Reich’s offensive coordinator in Indy, so he comes with institutional knowledge of what worked for Wentz in 2016 and ’17, and to me his arrival foreshadows Philly’s taking another stab at getting the former second pick right.
I’m on the record on what I think the Eagles should do. If it’s me, I throw the doors open to a competition between Wentz and Jalen Hurts, and see where that goes. Wentz won’t like it, and he may ask for a trade if you do that. But I think getting multiple shots at getting it right is the correct thing to do. And I’d also look pretty closely at Justin Fields, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance, because chances are at least one of them will be sitting there at the sixth pick.
From Matt Ramas (@matt_ramas): How quickly can Robert Saleh turn the Jets around?
Matt, that depends, at least in part, on what the team does at quarterback. If they stick with Darnold, I think you’ll see an effort to build it up around him aggressively—maybe they’d draft Penei Sewell at No. 2 and bookend him with Mekhi Becton, and then pursue a Godwin, Golladay or Robinson on the veteran receiver market. If they draft Wilson and trade Darnold, that would obviously change the timeline a little bit.
I think, realistically, either way, getting to six or seven wins in 2021 would be a nice step forward. Remember, Saleh saw builds happen pretty methodically in Seattle and San Francisco, so I think he’ll be able to take a good 30,000-foot view of what the Jets need.
From Daniel Trugman (@dtrugman2): Do you think the new policy tying draft-pick compensation to coordinator hires has been a factor at all this year? I can't imagine teams would be thrilled to give the Chiefs more ammunition for Eric Bieniemy.
Daniel, I don’t think it’s made teams more hesitant to hire guys—and Terry Fontenot is probably the best example. The hire of the new Falcons’ GM is going to gift two third-round picks to Atlanta’s archrival in New Orleans. And while I did hear that came up as they were mulling their options, these sorts of hires are far more important for the teams making them than worrying about giving another team the 99th pick in the draft.
In fact, frankly, I think a team that would make a decision based on something like that would be pretty dumb.
From Moose Block (@moose_block): It seems Josh McDaniels will be left out of any HC jobs this year. Do you think his walking away from the Colts’ job a few years ago contributed to teams avoiding him?
I do, Moose. But I think some of those fences have been mended, if people cared to ask about it. And as I pointed out in the MMQB column, there are some interesting things about McDaniels’s candidacies the last few years—namely, what’s happened to guys on his staff lists. Giants’ coach Joe Judge, Chargers coach Brandon Staley, Colts’ defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus and Eagles’ defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, in addition to Patriots’ exec Dave Ziegler (who’s replacing Nick Caserio in Foxboro) were among those who were planning to follow him to either Indy, Cleveland or both.
That’s something I’d look hard into if I was a team looking for a head coach in 2022. Being able to identify guys like that is a big part of the job.
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